[kj] Tomorrow's World & Technology (Re: Strange Events)

[Brendan]

I work in IT supporting currency traders, and their models are pretty
vague at best...because they are trying to predict human behaviour
(logical and emotional, local and global, short-term / long term, greed vs
fear...), combined with computer behaviour ('stop losses'...which are
currency limits built in to computer models that will automatically sell a
position at certain levels in order to prevent further losses...which can
cause mass movements in currencies once they hit a certain critical point
where the majority of the market has built in their stop losses)...along
with unpredictible events such as weather, natural habitats, mineral finds
etc. Modelling that is extremely complex...so the results are imprecise
and vague at best, except when you drill down to the short term and narrow
your focus to particular submarkets etc...

I imagine that modelling future trends in technology is even more
difficult. Some things completely blindside. Like the internet. Cellphones
(Vodafone went from not existing to one of the top 5 companies in the
world, I believe, within 20 years, on the back of the cellphone boom.
Someone was telling me today that they paid $US200 billion to buy or merge
with a german telco, I'm assuming Deutsche Telecom, will need to do my
googling...that's a LOT of money. Would take me WEEKS to get through that
much ;). Google went from nothing to however big they are now. Carbon
trading and the whole green market is looking to be a huge potential
market...who ever saw that coming 15 years ago and incorporated that into
their models...? That changes a hell of a lot...you will now have
companies set up soley to earn money by storing carbon, in order to earn
positive credits that they can then trade with polluters. Whacky stuff.
The music industry moving online. Energy trading across borders. Lots and
lots of examples...

Climate change (regardless of cause) has the potential to change so
much...as do the 'emerging markets' of china, india, sth america (hi Guto
and Have-ear!) at the same time that the world economy looks to be
de-coupling from the US Economy (maybe) with the $USD devaluing like crazy
and possibly losing its status as the currency standard...

Models are certainly useful and shouldn't be neglected (like some,
generally corporate-minded, try to completely ridicule weather modelling
because it's not perfect)...but human behaviour and technology in
particular are extremely hard to model on large scales of time and volume.

One thing I've been thinking about is the possibility of the breakdown of
country borders as people decide that most modern democracy is a joke, the
capitalist model of constant competition and accumulation doesn't work,
and decide to express themselves by who they choose to work for, spend
their money with, donate money to, etc. Meaning you could have political
movements that start up in dozens of countries simultaneously...



> : D Good one.

>

> I see the positive issues as well, for example - combining human neural

> system and IT, biologic computing [games with DNA, ad hoc design of

> medicaments...], nanotechnologies, further growth of computer chips... all

> this has an unbelievable potential (also in bussiness!).

>

> However, danger and usefullness grow with the same scale.

>

>> "it's pretty hard to predict what may happen with technology in the

> future"

>

> Yes, but there's a method for making scenarios of few possible future

> time-lines.

> It's a method used by companies to make management decisions [Shell uses

> it,

> for example].

> When I was studying in the Netherlands, we were trying to make such

> scenarios and watch the ethic and social aspects of the new technology

> public usage. [Some middle way between Utopia and Distopia [the worst

> case].]

> It gives a glimpse of possibilities - pros and contras.

> I just wonder if people who advertise the newest technologies for bringing

> it to use, do use it and are aware of consequences. However, nobody will

> stop the progress - regardless of the direction.

>

> "Enjoy (y)ourselves. This is (y)our new age!"

>

> Lenn

>

> PS. I think that the only way to be safe [with technologies or without] is

> to "illuminate" the whole humankind.

> But most of it is still kept in deep hypnotized sleepwalk. This is the

> real

> "Matrix".

>

> 2007/11/8, Brendan <bq at soundgardener.co.nz>:

>>

>> I think something along those lines is possible, perhaps not with time

>> travel, but I'm open to that. As much as physicists do know how the

>> physical world acts and interacts, no one really knows WHY gravity

>> works,

>> what most forms of energy are, hence what matter is...etc etc. I read

>> New

>> Scientist mag, don't claim to understand half of it, but one thing I

>> have

>> picked up is this massive level of uncertainty about...stuff. Science is

>> discovering new stuff all the time, but that is also broadening the

>> scope

>> of what we know we don't know...

>>

>> As for what's possible in the future...well looking back, practically NO

>> ONE predicted the surge in popularity of the internet (it's now so

>> ubiquitous that you don't have to capitalise the i...),. If you read

>> technology books pre early 90s, pre the first WWW browser, including

>> Bill

>> Gates' one, it just didn't occur to most people. I read a book about the

>> guy who drove (not really invented) Netscape, Jim Clark I think, he and

>> the guy who invented the technology behind it went around for months

>> promoting the internet browser (www / html) to corporates and venture

>> capitalists and no one could really see their vision. Which is not

>> really

>> their fault, I mean...it's just such a new concept.

>>

>> My point being, it's pretty hard to predict what may happen with

>> technology in the future. Who knows how many quantum leaps similar to

>> the

>> internet there are going to be...? And for all that implants are going

>> to

>> cause all sorts of personal privacy and control / manipulation issues, I

>> can see potential positives as well. Downloading memories, skills, maps,

>> languages, being able to stand there pretending to listen to the mother

>> in

>> law while you're playing a game of Quake in your head...while listening

>> to

>> Killing Joke, and of course:

>>

>> "Jiu jitsu?...I'm going to learn...Jiu Jitsu?"

>>

>> -Neo

>>

>> > I'm going to shoot out my brain voluntarily...

>> >

>> > (Convince me that Matrix/Terminator visions are NOT possible.

>> > Not talking about the farm of animals...)

>> >

>> > Lenn

>> >

>> > PS. Yes, I'm a mad [wo]maniac. And I enjoy it!

>> >

>> > 2007/11/8, Brendan <bq at soundgardener.co.nz>:

>> >>

>> >> Christ on a bike, look at how our understanding of science has

>> improved

>> >> in

>> >> the last 100 years...by about 2020 desktop computers will have the

>> >> processing power of the human brain (which is huge), so imagine the

>> >> computing power of 10 million of them all hooked up (distributed

>> >> processing, it's already been happening for ages).

>> >>

>> >> The 21st century is very likely going to see advances in biology that

>> >> will

>> >> rival what the 20th century did with physics (which is itself

>> improving

>> >> steadily)...and all this while we put a hell of a lot more effort

>> into

>> >> killing each other than science.

>> >>

>> >> I think when we've had several decades of lack of progress

>> >> scientifically,

>> >> THEN focus on our limitations, until then there just doesn't seem to

>> be

>> >> any ceiling that I can see. There's going to be loads of ethical

>> issues

>> >> of

>> >> course...if you have a look on Youtube and other sites, people are

>> >> already

>> >> starting to be implanted with RFID chips, US passports I gather have

>> >> RFID

>> >> chips embedded, some credit cards possibly...it's 'interesting times'

>> >> alright.

>> >>

>> >> > Not exactly speaking from a scholarly point of view here (that's an

>> >> > understatement if there ever was one), but....

>> >> >

>> >> > I think that moving forward or even backward through time, whether

>> >> > possible or completely impossible, is most likely far beyond the

>> reach

>> >> of

>> >> > stupid little human beings. I doubt our fragile little 90%-water

>> >> bodies

>> >> > could withstand the force exerted by such flights of fancy. It

>> would

>> >> > probably be the equivalent of being sucked through a black hole

>> which,

>> >> so

>> >> > I've read, would theoretically turn the average person into human

>> >> > spaghetti.

>> >> >

>> >> > In the grand scheme of things, we are finite little creatures

>> living

>> >> > finite lives and we're stranded on our little, tiny, infintesimal,

>> >> nothing

>> >> > of a chunk of rock and water. I doubt we're meant for much more.

>> >> > Hopefully, i'm wrong, cuz i've got some scores to settle with a few

>> of

>> >> my

>> >> > grade school teachers.

>> >> >

>> >> > Leigh

>> >> >

>> >> >

>> >> >

>> >> > ----- Original Message ----

>> >> > From: Flight Bringer <flightbringer at hotmail.co.uk>

>> >> > To: A list about all things Killing Joke (the band!)

>> >> > <gathering at misera.net>

>> >> > Sent: Wednesday, November 7, 2007 12:52:47 PM

>> >> > Subject: Re: [kj] Strange events

>> >> >

>> >> >

>> >> > Thats is indeed a good theory......but the reality is that we cant

>> >> even

>> >> > get the trains and buses to run on time , let alone getting them to

>> >> arrive

>> >> > before they've even departed.

>> >> >      But the theory below is akin to saying "It is possible for Man

>> to

>> >> > drink a glass of water.......so that means that its also possible

>> to

>> >> > Man to drink the Pacific ocean.........with all the fish included

>> >> >

>> >> >

>> >> >

>> >> > Date: Wed, 7 Nov 2007 17:24:46 +0000

>> >> > From: DavidSchofield at liberata.com

>> >> > To: gathering at misera.net

>> >> > Subject: Re: [kj] Strange events

>> >> >

>> >> > PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT NOTICE BELOW. DO NOT OPEN ANY ATTACHMENT

>> >> WITHOUT

>> >> > PRIOR VIRUS CHECKING.

>> >> > ________________________________________________________

>> >> >

>> >> >

>> >> > Nobody has proved that backwards time travel is possible (yet), but

>> >> > relative forwards time travel is possible. Time can be observed

>> going

>> >> at

>> >> > different rates depending on your relative velocity – the faster

>> you

>> >> go,

>> >> > the slower time goes relative to someone who is stationary (not

>> that

>> >> you

>> >> > are ever stationary – stood still you have a velocity of ~30km/s

>> just

>> >> from

>> >> > the planet orbiting the sun). I think on a transatlantic flight

>> there

>> >> is

>> >> a

>> >> > half second or so difference, but the nearer you get to the speed

>> of

>> >> light

>> >> > the larger the difference.

>> >> >

>> >> > This leads to the ability to travel forward in time. If you could

>> >> travel

>> >> > fast enough, for long enough, then you could get a significant

>> >> difference

>> >> > between your time and the time on earth. So, in theory if we threw

>> you

>> >> off

>> >> > into on a mission to the nearest star at 50% of the speed of light,

>> it

>> >> > would take you ~40 years (of your time) but to us, it would take

>> ~47

>> >> > years. At 99.99% of the speed of light, it would take you 4 months,

>> >> but

>> >> to

>> >> > us it would be 24years.

>> >> > .

>> >> > You can slow light down by passing it through a medium such as

>> glass

>> >> or

>> >> > water.

>> >> >

>> >> > Time is theoretically linked to other forces also, sufficiently

>> high

>> >> > gravity or magnetic fields could also be used to slow time

>> relatively.

>> >> >

>> >> > You can also get Tachyons, which are faster than light particles,

>> but

>> >> they

>> >> > are still theoretical. Perhaps CERN will find some.

>> >> >

>> >> > My head now hurts.

>> >> >

>> >> > Dave

>> >> >

>> >> >

>> >> >

>> >> >

>> >> > From: gathering-bounces at misera.net

>> >> [mailto:gathering-bounces at misera.net]

>> >> > On Behalf Of Flight Bringer

>> >> > Sent: 07 November 2007 16:52

>> >> > To: A list about all things Killing Joke (the band!)

>> >> > Subject: Re: [kj] Strange events

>> >> >

>> >> >

>> >> > It just isnt possible to go either back or forward in time , you

>> can

>> >> dress

>> >> > it up as much as you like and give as many theories as you want ,

>> but

>> >> > there is no way that time can be reversed .

>> >> >     It just isnt possible for that chicken that I ate today to be

>> once

>> >> > again running around a farm like it was a few weeks ago . If I went

>> >> > and chopped a tree down last week and then sawed it up and burnt it

>> to

>> >> > ashes, there is no way that those ashes could ever reinvent

>> themselves

>> >> > as wood and then materialise itself as the same

>> >> > tree.......................................Impossible

>> >> >

>> >> >> Date: Wed, 7 Nov 2007 15:05:31 +0000

>> >> >> From: crackedmachine at yahoo.co.uk

>> >> >> To: gathering at misera.net

>> >> >> Subject: Re: [kj] Strange events

>> >> >>

>> >> >> The experiments at CERN could conceivably cause some

>> >> >> strange effects with time/space.

>> >> >>

>> >> >> "The clock turned backwards"

>> >> >>

>> >> >>

>> >> >> > OK, I know I am setting myself up here for ridicule

>> >> >> and piss take.

>> >> >>

>> >> >> > However, despite appearances, those that have had

>> >> >> the misfortne to meet me,

>> >> >>

>> >> >> > will probabbly testify that I am quite rational and

>> >> >> sound of mind.

>> >> >>

>> >> >> >

>> >> >>

>> >> >>

>> >> >

>> >> >

>> >> >

>> >> > Are you the Quizmaster? Play BrainBattle with a friend now!

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