[kj] This ought to send Jaz off on a rampage

Jester gathering@misera.net
Tue, 29 Jul 2003 10:34:49 -0500


this sounds like fun. Kinda like that "What celeb is going to die next"=20=

thing the radio station does.

Sign me up

Joe in TexASS
On Tuesday, July 29, 2003, at 10:33  AM, Alexander Smith wrote:

>
>
>
> Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks
> By CARL HULSE
>
> ASHINGTON, July 28 =98 The Pentagon office that proposed spying=20
> electronically
> on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It=20=

> is an
> online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which
> anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks,
> assassinations and coups.
> Advertisement
>
>
>
> Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the=20
> chances
> of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on=20=

> the
> likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the=20
> Defense
> Advanced Research Projects Agency.
>
> The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and=20=

> part
> of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent
> terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan=20
> called it
> morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell=20
> under
> the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's=20
> national
> security adviser.
>
> One of the two senators, Byron L. Dorgan of North Dakota, said the =
idea
> seemed so preposterous that he had trouble persuading people it was=20
> not a
> hoax. "Can you imagine," Mr. Dorgan asked, "if another country set up =
a
> betting parlor so that people could go in =98 and is sponsored by the
> government itself =98 people could go in and bet on the assassination =
of=20
> an
> American political figure?"
>
> After Mr. Dorgan and his fellow critic, Ron Wyden of Oregon, spoke=20
> out, the
> Pentagon sought to play down the importance of a program for which the=20=

> Bush
> administration has sought $8 million through 2005. The White House =
also
> altered the Web site so that the potential events to be considered by=20=

> the
> market that were visible earlier in the day at=20
> www.policyanalysismarket.org
> could no longer be seen.
>
> But by that time, Republican officials in the Senate were privately=20
> shaking
> their heads over the planned trading. One top aide said he hoped that=20=

> the
> Pentagon had a good explanation for it.
>
> The Pentagon, in defending the program, said such futures trading had=20=

> proven
> effective in predicting other events like oil prices, elections and=20
> movie
> ticket sales.
>
> "Research indicates that markets are extremely efficient, effective =
and
> timely aggregators of dispersed and even hidden information," the=20
> Defense
> Department said in a statement. "Futures markets have proven=20
> themselves to
> be good at predicting such things as elections results; they are often
> better than expert opinions."
>
> According to descriptions given to Congress, available at the Web site=20=

> and
> provided by the two senators, traders who register would deposit money=20=

> into
> an account similar to a stock account and win or lose money based on
> predicting events.
>
> "For instance," Mr. Wyden said, "you may think early on that Prime=20
> Minister
> X is going to be assassinated. So you buy the futures contracts for 5=20=

> cents
> each. As more people begin to think the person's going to be=20
> assassinated,
> the cost of the contract could go up, to 50 cents.
>
> "The payoff if he's assassinated is $1 per future. So if it comes to=20=

> pass,
> and those who bought at 5 cents make 95 cents. Those who bought at 50=20=

> cents
> make 50 cents."
>
> The senators also suggested that terrorists could participate because=20=

> the
> traders' identities will be unknown.
>
> "This appears to encourage terrorists to participate, either to profit=20=

> from
> their terrorist activities or to bet against them in order to mislead=20=

> U.S.
> intelligence authorities," they said in a letter to Admiral=20
> Poindexter, the
> director of the Terrorism Information Awareness Office, which the=20
> opponents
> said had developed the idea.
>
> The initiative, called the Policy Analysis Market, is to begin=20
> registering
> up to 1,000 traders on Friday. It is the latest problem for the=20
> advanced
> projects agency, or Darpa, a Pentagon unit that has run into=20
> controversy for
> the Terrorism Information Office. Admiral Poindexter once described a
> sweeping electronic surveillance plan as a way of forestalling=20
> terrorism by
> tapping into computer databases to collect medical, travel, credit and
> financial records.
>
> Worried about the reach of the program, Congress this year prohibited=20=

> what
> was called the Total Information Awareness program from being used=20
> against
> Americans. Its name was changed to the Terrorism Information Awareness
> program.
>
> This month, the Senate agreed to block all spending on the program. =
The
> House did not. Mr. Wyden said he hoped that the new disclosure about=20=

> the
> trading program would be the death blow for Admiral Poindexter's plan.
>
> The Pentagon did not provide details of the program like how much =
money
> participants would have to deposit in accounts. Trading is to begin on=20=

> Oct.
> 1, with the number of participants initially limited to 1,000 and=20
> possibly
> expanding to 10,000 by Jan. 1.
>
> "Involvement in this group prediction process should prove engaging=20
> and may
> prove profitable," the Web site said.
>
> The overview of the plan said the market would focus on the economic,=20=

> civil
> and military futures of Egypt, Jordan, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Saudi=20
> Arabia,
> Syria and Turkey and the consequences of United States involvement =
with
> those nations. The creators of the market envision other trappings of
> existing markets like derivatives.
>
> In a statement, Darpa said the trading idea was "currently a small=20
> research
> program that faces a number of major technical challenges and
> uncertainties."
>
> "Chief among these," the agency said, "are: Can the market survive and=20=

> will
> people continue to participate when U.S. authorities use it to prevent
> terrorist attacks? Can futures markets be manipulated by adversaries?"
>
> Mr. Dorgan and Mr. Wyden called for an immediate end to the project=20
> and said
> they would use its existence to justify cutting off financial support=20=

> for
> the overall effort. In the letter to Admiral Poindexter, they called=20=

> the
> initiative a "wasteful and absurd" use of tax dollars.
>
> "The American people want the federal government to use its resources
> enhancing our security, not gambling on it," the letter said.
>
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